So we're halfway through the season, and it's time to give the surprise players their due. Three months is enough for congratulations. But confidence? That's another story.

Here is an All-Star team of first-half surprises, players we never thought could do this -- plus a Real-O-Meter to guage their chances of repeating their performance in the second half. Gentlemen, start your arguments ...

1B: Steve Cox, Devil Rays
At the risk of starting out on a dull note, there really are no surprises at first base -- and that includes Mo Vaughn's and Tino Martinez's struggles. Please don't mention Detroit's Randall Simon and his .284-10-45 numbers. The guy has walked five times all year with just 11 doubles and nary a triple or steal. Oh, and he's committed six errors as perhaps the league's worst regular first baseman.

Out of sentimental reasons, we're going with Cox, whose .288-9-37 line and lefty bat could land him his dream gig -- a job anywhere other than in Tampa Bay. He's 27, so it's no shock he's hitting a little over his head.

Real-O-Meter: 80 percent.

2B: Junior Spivey, Diamondbacks
Sure, Ernest Spivey's picture was on the pocket schedule this year -- of the Tucson Sidewinders, the Diamondbacks' Triple-A club. But Spivey hit .362 in spring training, made the big-league team and has barely slowed down since, batting .325 (seventh in the National League) and tying for the lead with six triples. His .984 OPS is higher than wunderkind Alfonso Soriano's; heck, it's 100 points higher than Jeff Kent's or Jose Vidro's. Spivey missed two weeks in June with a hamstring strain, but since returning has gone 7-for-21, hitting safely in all five games.

Real-O-Meter: 60 percent.

SS: Omar Vizquel, Indians
It's one thing for Carlos Guillen to come back strong despite last fall's tuberculosis; he's just 26. But Vizquel, who had a miserable 2001 at age 34, appeared on the slippery slope to oblivion, kind of like his Indians.

Instead he has been reborn, batting .295 with a .379 on-base percentage and .484 slugging average, placing only behind Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra with an .863 OPS after last year's embarrassing .657. His 10 home runs are already a career high. (We hear the guy can play a little D, too.)

One note on Vizquel, though: He has stolen 46 bases the last two and a half years and gotten nailed 28 times, for a 62 percent success rate. When will he just stop wasting everyone's time?

Real-O-Meter: 55 percent.

3B: Shea Hillenbrand, Red Sox
One national columnist (i.e. me) wrote before the season that a "contender has no business starting him." Then he spent the first half becoming a main reason why the Sox are contenders in the first place, batting .304-13-49 with several game-winning home runs, one off Mariano Rivera. But April celebration of newfound plate discipline now appears premature. Watch how his numbers have steadily declined:

Month	BA	OBP	SLG
April	.341	.390	.582
May	.303	.345	.523
June	.275	.286	.440

Hillenbrand drew not one walk in all of June, covering 109 at-bats. That won't do the job; ultimately, it might cost Hillenbrand his.

Real-O-Meter: 30 percent.

C: A.J. Pierzynski, Twins
To borrow a device from Rob Neyer, here are two American League catchers:

	BA	OBP	SLG	E	CS%
Player A	.323	.365	.529	2	24
Player B	.258	.350	.487	6	14

Both play for first-place clubs. But Catcher B (Jorge Posada) wears Yankee pinstripes, so he gets the votes to start the All-Star Game. Pierzynski plays in the GladBag Dome so he goes only as a reserve.

Pierzynski hit .289 in his first extended (platoon) trial last year and is just 25, showing that he's only on the ascent. With him now hitting lefties (.282 BA), if he doesn't wear down behind the plate there's no reason to think he can't keep this up.

Real-O-Meter: 80 percent.

LF: Jacque Jones, Twins
You could see Pat Burrell's explosion to .281-19-58 territory; Jones' surge is less striking but also less likely.

He's hitting .290-11-52. His 22 doubles are four off his career high, and he could drive in more than 100 runs after just 49 last year -- when he was benched temporarily for poor production.

Jones' 66 strikeouts and 22 walks dampen his chances of repeating. Another guy probably enjoying his career year at age 27, perhaps he keep it up for the next three months, but don't expect this next season.

Real-O-Meter: 40 percent.

CF: Randy Winn, Devil Rays
Winn's 22 doubles, six triples and six home runs are already almost exactly what he hit in all of last season. His .307 average is 37 points more than his lifetime mark, and his 39 RBI and 46 runs mean he'll pass last year's career highs of 50 and 54 sometime this month (if he doesn't tire out, like last year). He also has stolen 15 bases in 19 attempts.

Winn covers plenty of ground in center: His 3.05 range factor is third in the AL, ahead of even Torii Hunter. He also has six assists and just one error. Like Cox, he might not be patrolling Tampa Bay for long.

Real-O-Meter: 40 percent.

RF: Dustan Mohr, Twins
Here's a guy who was released by the Indians at the end of spring training 2000. Signed by Minnesota the next day, Mohr won the Eastern League batting title last year at tough-hitting New Britain, but he was 25, for crying out loud. And after he got called up in August he batted .235 in 20 games with no homers.

All Mohr has done this year is hit .296-7-26 with 37 runs while giving some stability to the Twins' right-field spot. It's hard to see him doing it again in the second half, but it's been fun while it lasts.

Real-O-Meter: 20 percent.

LHP: Odalis Perez, Dodgers
We knew Perez had some talent. But this much?

A poor reliever and middling starter with the Braves last year, Perez helped make up the difference in the Brian Jordan-Gary Sheffield trade. Now he's one of the biggest differences in the Dodgers' direction toward the playoffs.

Perez, who just turned 24, is 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA that ranks third in the NL. His stuff is so good, he has allowed hitters just a .210 batting average and .314 slugging percentage, both National League lows. (And he has walked just 17 batters in 123 innings.) Suddenly, Perez is the best pitcher on a first-place Dodgers team with all four top starters (joining Hideo Nomo, Andy Ashby and Kazuhisa Ishii) with ERAs under 3.52. He'll be around a lot longer, too.

Real-O-Meter: 80 percent.

RHP: Jason Simontacchi, Cardinals
Two years ago, Simontacchi was pitching in the Italian League. Now he's pitching in a pennant race -- and helping save the Cardinals' difficult season.

Simontacchi, rocked in Triple-A last year, got his chance only to fill in during a rash of St. Louis rotation injuries. He beat the Braves, then beat the Reds, and has barely slowed down since. He's a shocking 6-1 with a 2.95 ERA.

One warning with Simontacchi: He has struck out just 23 batters in 55 innings, indicating that he's allowing a ton of balls in play and getting away with not fooling many hitters. That will be tough to continue in the second half.

Real-O-Meter: 20 percent.

Closer: Eric Gagne, Dodgers
At the beginning of this year, the Dodgers preferred trading for Billy Koch or Troy Percival to solve their bullpen dilemma. Instead, now with Gagne -- a perennial prospect who never could harness his talent -- the dilemma rests only with opposing hitters who can't solve him.

Gagne's 30 saves put him in line to break Bobby Thigpen's major-league record of 57. His mid-90s (occasionally faster) heater and hard changeup have helped him lead National League closers with a 1.27 ERA and .155 batting average against. Those 60 strikeouts against four walks are downright unfair.

Real-O-Meter: 85 percent.

Setup: Chris Hammond, Braves
Plenty of choices here. Alan Embree has an 0.94 ERA. J.C. Romero has a 1.74 ERA. But Chris Hammond's 1.71 ERA is almost unbelievable.

Hammond, 36, didn't pitch in 1999. He didn't pitch in 2000. He came back to pitch for Cleveland's Triple-A Buffalo affiliate last year, but got released in July. The Braves picked him up a few weeks later.

So, naturally, he's now thriving in Atlanta's makeshift bullpen. That 1.71 ERA (not to mention .188 batting average against) ranks among the NL relievers top 10, along with fellow nondescript Braves Darren Holmes (1.56) and Kevin Gryboski (1.64).

Two things about that: One, middle relievers often are brought in specifically for batters they should succeed against, helping their numbers, but two, for these guys to succeed to this degree is quite a testament to Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone.

Real-O-Meter: 35 percent.

Alan Schwarz is the Senior Writer of Baseball America magazine and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.