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Thursday, July 25
Updated: July 30, 1:12 AM ET
 
Hall debates: Raffy and Crime Dog

By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

Fred McGriff, has a cool nickname. Rafael Palmeiro has nationwide recognition with his Viagra commercials.

Alas, Hall of Fame status has more to do with on-field abilities. Do Crime Dog and Raffy meet the standards?

First, their career stats:

        Age   G   H    R   2B 3B  HR  RBI   BB  AVG  OBP  SLG
McGriff  38 2295 2353 1283 414 23 469 1470 1251 .287 .381 .514 
Palmeiro 37 2350 2570 1411 510 36 472 1531 1095 .293 .373 .521

Not surprisingly, with such similar career totals, baseballreference.com lists McGriff and Palmeiro as being the most similar players to each other. Their top 10 comparable players include Hall of Famers such as Willie Stargell, Orlando Cepeda, Willie McCovey, Duke Snider and Billy Williams.

Palmeiro is a year younger and slightly more productive right now, so is the better bet to end up with more career home runs, hits and RBI. Both are still going strong and will clear 500 home runs with ease. Both will likely end up in the top 20 in lifetime RBI and home runs when they retire. Palmeiro may even get to 3,000 hits.

On the other hand, with the offensive explosion of the mid-'90s, 500 homers may no longer be an automatic number when McGriff and Palmeiro come up for election in 10 years. Neither player has ever won an MVP Award. They have combined for just nine All-Star Games -- or one less than Steve Garvey.

I asked around the offices here at espn.com and the consensus is that Palmeiro is a Hall of Famer, but McGriff is not. But is Palmeiro the better player? He's had his big years in the post-1993 explosion, with seven straight 100-RBI seasons and an eighth on the way. McGriff's peak years as a slugger came in the late '80s and early '90s, when offensive totals were lower.

This is an important consideration. It's easy to be swayed by the fact that Palmeiro has had three 40-homer seasons (and three more at 39), while McGriff's career high is 37. But McGriff led his league twice in home runs, something Palmeiro has never done.

It's easy to forget that McGriff was once among the best and most feared hitters in baseball. From 1988 to 1994 he finished in the top five in OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) seven consecutive seasons. He also finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six straight years (with a high of fourth in 1993). Palmeiro, by contrast, has finished in the top five in OPS just twice (1991 and 1999) and just three times in the top 10 in MVP voting.

Still doubt the numbers? Here are top 10 results across the board:

OPS: McGriff 7, Palmeiro 6
Home runs: McGriff 7, Palmeiro 10
Slugging pct.: McGriff 7, Palmeiro 6
On-base pct.: McGriff 4, Palmeiro 1
Batting avg.: McGriff 1, Palmeiro 5
RBI: McGriff 5, Palmeiro 8
Walks: McGriff 5, Palmeiro 4
Runs: McGriff 5, Palmeiro 3
Hits: McGriff 1, Palmeiro 5
MVP voting: McGriff 6, Palmeiro 3
All-Star Games: McGriff 5, Palmeiro 4
Gold Gloves: McGriff 0, Palmeiro 3

I think the evidence points to McGriff being at least Palmeiro's equal, with a slightly higher peak value.

But does that make them Hall of Famers? Were they ever the best in the league at their positions? McGriff was, for a few years. Palmeiro has always been fighting against Mark McGwire or Mo Vaughn or Frank Thomas or Jim Thome or Jason Giambi. For instance, Palmeiro finished ninth in the AL in OPS in 1995 ... but behind Thomas, McGwire and Vaughn (and Thome, who was still a third baseman then). Last year, he was 10th ... but behind Giambi, Thome and Carlos Delgado.

In the end, however, I think Palmeiro will have a fairly easy trek into the Hall. His career numbers, thanks to his amazing consistency and longevity, will be too hard to ignore, as he has a good shot at 600 home runs and 3,000 hits.

McGriff, with his peak seven-year run as a truly great hitter and solid performance for a decade afterwards, should also make it, if not quite as easily as Palmeiro.

It would be a crime if he doesn't.

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.




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