College Football
Friday, December 31
War Room: Orange Bowl
The War Room

Michigan (9-2) vs. Alabama (10-2)
Orlando, Fla., Jan. 1, 2000, 8:30 p.m. ET

Michigan Wolverines
In what some people close to the program consider a disappointing season, the Wolverines battled through the second-toughest schedule in the country and find themselves playing in the BCS Orange Bowl. Michigan bounced back from a from a 10-3 season a year ago to finish 9-2. The biggest difference for the Wolverines has been their penalties, dropping from an average of 13 to 6.5 and turnovers, falling from 29 a year ago to just 12.

Perhaps the best-case scenario for the Wolverines this season was senior QB Tom Brady winning starting job. Drew Henson is the future of this program, but Brady proved to be the present, emerging as the team's leader in loss to Michigan State. Brady, one of the most underrated players in the country, is a strong-armed, accurate and reliable quarterback who is an ideal fit for the Wolverine offense. Michigan is going to need his "care-taking" style against Alabama in order to win the time-of-possession battle. Against the more high-powered offense of Alabama, the key to this game will be to limit turnovers and chew up time on the clock. Michigan's receiving corps has shown some flashes this season, but it is not a consistent unit. WR David Terrell had a big season as the team's playmaker, but he has a tendency to disappear. The rest of the receiving corps, including Marcus Knight, Marquise Walker and Diallo Johnson is capable, but there is not a reliable, possession guy in the bunch. Establishing a ground game is going to be vital for the Wolverine offense. RB Anthony Thomas has carried the load: 283 carries for 1,257 yards and 16 touchdowns. He will again be the workhorse on offense. If Michigan slows down the pace of the game by running the ball ,more than 30 times, it protects the defense and gives it the best chance to win.

The Wolverines are tough up front against the run. NT Rob Renes give the Wolverines a solid run-stopper and usually draws a double-team inside. DE James Hall has also done an excellent job of stacking against the run, which has given the Wolverine linebacker plenty of protection to move freely to the ball. Expect the Wolverines to force Alabama to the air by walking up hard-hitting SS Tommy Hendricks to the line of scrimmage in order to create more of a "44" look to stop RB Shaun Alexander. Where the Wolverines may have some trouble is against the pass. From the start of the season, Michigan has battled dismissals and injuries in the secondary. Michigan's vulnerability to the big pass play is a concern, especially against an Alabama team which has opened up its offense, taking advantage of the speed and athletic ability of FL Freddie Milons. FS DeWayne Patmon is going to play a crucial role in coverage, as the team will likely use him in "cloud coverage" to give the Michigan corners help in the deep third. If Patmon can take away the big play from the Alabama offense, it will allow Hendricks to play closer to the line of scrimmage, giving Michigan a better alignment to defend against the run.

Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tide could not have picked a better time to play its best football. Overcoming early season adversity and a loss in September to an unranked Louisiana Tech team, Alabama heads into the Orange Bowl 10-2. It has one of the most deceptive offensive attacks and a defense that is coming off a dominating performance over the Florida Gators in the SEC Championship Game, holding an explosive offense to just seven points.

Offensively, the Tide, despite a season riddled with injury and inconsistent quarterback play, has a well-balanced attack capable of striking with many different weapons. RB Shaun Alexander is the most complete running back in the country. Alexander scored 24 touchdowns this season while rushing for 1,399 yards. He is not only a top back, but can also return kicks, pick up the blitz and most importantly, he is the leader of an offense that is in the midst of a "quarterback situation." The Tide took what could have been a controversy at the quarterback position and made it into a game plan. The season's starter, Andrew Zow, completed 10 of 17 for 134 yards in the win over Florida, and Tyler Watts, the freshman reserve, chipped in going 3-for-7 for 21 yards while running for another 18 yards. Alabama's offensive scheme is to lull the opponent to sleep and then strike with big-play FL Fred Milons. Milons fits the bill in this versatile offense because of his great speed, athleticism and ability to make plays no matter where he is lined up on the field. All this adds up to a versatile offense that Michigan is going to have a difficult time game-planning against. Alabama is going to have some trouble establishing the run against a stout Michigan defense, but it will stick to the ground early to soften up the Wolverines and then take chances deep against Michigan's suspect secondary.

Anchored by strong DTs Reggie Grimes and Cornelius Griffin, Alabama ranks second in the nation against the run, allowing an average of just 75.3 yards per game. The Tide's linebacking corps is active, filling the holes hard against the run, while creating a tremendous pass rush on the blitz. Led by freshman LB Saleem Rasheed, the front seven is going to give Michigan all it can handle up front. Rasheed was named SEC Freshman Defensive Player fo the Year after playing inside and outside and recording a team-high 81 tackles. This matchup is going to feature strength against strength. The Wolverines are going to look to establish the running game to set the tempo on offense and limit turnovers, but the Tide is well-equipped to shut down the "A-Train," forcing Michigan to take to the air. Michigan may not be comfortable doing so, but throwing the ball on Alabama may be the way to go. The Tide's secondary has been susceptible to the vertical passing game, allowing 19 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions through the 11-game regular season. However, in the SEC Championship game, Alabama picked off four Florida passes and only allowed the one first quarter score.

Keys to the game
1. Michigan's running game. Michigan does not want to get in a situation where it has to match points with Alabama. The Tide does not have an explosive passing game, but it will move the ball on the ground and in the air and proved that it will take advantage of turnovers and field position, as it did against Florida in the SEC title game. Michigan has a solid running game, led by Anthony Thomas, but it must face an Alabama team that is only allowing 75.3 yards per game on the ground.

2. Alabama's big-play threats. The Tide is not going to come out gunning on offense, but it does have the weapons to take advantage of matchups situations. Alabama has a balanced offensive attack with the capability of catching the Wolverines sleeping. Michigan would like to play eight-men in the box by walking up hard-hitting SS Tommy Hendricks to shut down RB Shaun Alexander, but the Wolverines need to be careful not to lose track of FL Fred Milons off the play-action fake.

Michigan has the horses up front to make this matchup interesting. The Crimson Tide's offensive line, led by senior All-American Chris Samuels, has been opening up gaping holes for Alexander, and allowed just 21 sacks the entire year. The trenches are where this game is going to be won. If Michigan can shut down the running game without much help from its secondary, it will force the Tide to throw the ball more on first and second downs, which is something Alabama does not want to do and can not do successfully.

War Room Edge: Alabama Crimson Tide
This is going to be the best matchup of all the college bowl games this year. The Orange Bowl, strangely enough, features two teams that are tough in the trenches and love to win games by running the football. Michigan may have the advantage up front on both sides of the ball, but Alabama seems to have found a formula to win. The Crimson Tide is taking advantage of a roster full of athletes better than any in the nation, and has found a way to make an above-average offense into one of the most dangerous units in the nation. The Wolverines will keep this contest close until the final gun, but it will be turnovers and the ability to capitalize on those turnovers that will see the Crimson Tide victorious in the 1999 Orange Bowl.

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