Tuesday, December 21
War Room: Oahu Bowl
The War Room
Oregon State (7-4) vs. Hawaii (8-3)
Honolulu, Hawaii, Dec. 25, 1999 8:30 p.m. ET
Oregon State Beavers
After 28 consecutive losing seasons, the Beavers are heading to their first postseason appearance in 35 years. The Beavers had one of the more balanced offensive attacks this season, finishing third in scoring and overall offense, and second in passing offense. They adjusted well to the new offensive scheme implemented by first-year coach Dennis Erickson. The wide-open attack made this unit versatile, finishing 11th in the nation in total offense, averaging 434 yards per game. RB Ken Simonton was the featured player on offense, taking advantage of defensive schemes that were forced to spread out in order to cover three-and-four receiver sets. Sophomore QB Jonathan Smith did an excellent job of spreading the ball around, giving the Beavers a proficient passing attack to go with their explosive run game. The team is dependent on Simonton's ability to carry the load. He finished second in the Pac-10 in rushing with 1,329 yards, while leading the conference with 17 touchdowns.
The Beavers finished second in the Pac-10 in total defense, allowing an average of 355.6 yards per game. They tied for the league lead in scoring defense, allowing 23.1 points per game. The Beavers are a bit undersized up front, but have tremendous speed and athleticism at linebacker, as well as in the secondary. The defense caused 28 turnovers, and wound up leading the Pac-10 in pass-efficiency defense because of excellent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and a secondary which covers a lot of territory. Dennis Weathersby is the surprise player on this unit, and his play at the cornerback position allowed the defense to play more aggressive schemes and gamble more against the run to make up for the lack of size up front. Weathersby, a freshman who wasn't even slated as a starter, wound up second-team all conference, leading the Beavers with 17 pass breakups.
Hawaii Rainbows
The Rainbows tied an NCAA record for the greatest one-year turnaround under first-year coach June Jones. Hawaii (5-2, 8-4) tied Fresno State and Texas Christian for the WAC title. Perhaps the most integral part of the turnaround was QB Dan Robinson's ability to grasp Jones' run-and-shoot offense far sooner than ever expected. Robinson, after waiting through a transfer and medical redshirt, emerged as the offensive leader and primary weapon, hitting on 289-of-556 passes for 3,853 yards and 28 touchdowns. Hawaii has one of the most explosive passing attacks in the country. The Rainbows finished the regular season first in the WAC in passing and total offense, and were in the top 20 in both categories nationally. WR Dwight Carter is Robinson's primary target, finishing with 77 receptions for 1,253 yards and nine touchdowns. What goes most unrecognized is the play of the offensive line, anchored by bookends Adrian Klemm and Kaulana Noa. Because they are so strong up front, the Rainbows are not only a threat to throw the ball, but they can hurt team on the ground as well. I-backs Avion Weaver and Afatia Thompson split the duties, combining for 1,170-rushing yards.
The Rainbows concern is on defense, where the unit is highly susceptible to the run. The team gave up an average of 186.6 yards per game, but kept things close with strong play from the secondary. The Rainbows finished second in the WAC to TCU with a pass-efficiency rating of 117.1, but too often the team has folded in the fourth quarter, when it was outscored 116-106. The anchor on the defensive unit is MLB Jeff Ulbrich, a physical inside player who made a remarkable recovery from knee surgery. Ulbrich, an All-WAC performer, started all 12 games and finished the season with a 14.1-tackle per game average and 14 tackles for losses, including eight quarterback sacks.
Keys to the game
1. Oregon State's running game. The Beavers are going to have to win the game by running the ball and controlling the tempo. RB Ken Simonton is one of the top backs in the nation, rushing for 1,329 yards as a sophomore, taking advantage of the spread out Beaver attack that forces defenses to back into coverage. The Beavers should be successful running the ball against a Rainbow defense that is highly susceptible to the run, allowing an average of 186.6-yards per game on the ground.
2. Hawaii's passing game. This matchup represents strength on strength. Hawaii made a remarkable turnaround this season by throwing the football in a complex, pro style scheme. QB Dan Robinson is an intelligent player who does an excellent job of distributing the ball. Robinson's primary target, Dwight Carter, is going to draw a tough assignment against freshman cover corner Dennis Weathersby. This could wind up as the matchup of the game, featuring two of the top athletes on the field. The one advantage the Rainbows have is the fact that their offensive line has a significant size advantage over the Beaver line, and should be able to hold up in pass protection.
3. The Rainbow's ability to run the ball behind tackle. The Rainbows possess a prolific passing attack, but as previously mentioned, the Beavers finished second in the Pac-10 in pass-defense efficiency. Hawaii's defense is suspect against the run, which means that the Rainbows do not want to get into a shootout. Expect June Jones to tailor his offense to the weakness of the Beaver defense, knowing that if they give the Beavers too many offensive opportunities it may lead to the Rainbows playing catchup football. The Rainbows have two athletic I-backs, Avion Weaver and Afatia Thompson. They split the load throughout the season, and will need to step up on Christmas Day.
War Room Edge: Oregon State Beavers
Two of the biggest surprise teams in the country will square off in what should be a closer game than what the oddsmakers are saying. Oregon State is going to be able to dictate the tempo of the game by running the football against a Hawaii defense that is not known for buckling down against the rush. The Beavers are also well equipped to handle the spread out passing attack of the Rainbows, and should be able to get to QB Dan Robinson with more speed-blitz packages. Everything points to a blowout when the matchup is broken down, but the Rainbows have a lot of intangible working in their favor. This is practically a home game for Hawaii, and June Jones is going to have his team well schemed to protect against the Beavers' running attack. The Rainbows are undermanned and may not match up well physically, but they do have big-play potential on both sides of the ball, and should keep it close for the home crowd.
