Colorado State Rams
Picked to finish fifth in the Mountain West Conference, coach Sonny Lubick's Rams finished the season 8-3 and surprised the college football world as the first MWC team to play in the Liberty Bowl. After getting off to a dismal 1-3 start, the Rams are firing on all cylinders. The most important part of the turnaround was the return of RB Kevin McDougal, who averaged 130 yards rushing in the Rams' last four wins. As one of the sole threats on offense, McDougal has had to earn his success, running against eight-and-nine man fronts, with a 116.4-yard average per game. McDougal was the difference on offense, but QB Matt Newton's role cannot be underestimated. Newton often struggled, throwing 13 interceptions, but in the season-ending, five-game win streak, Newton threw just three picks and became the caretaker of the offense.
Defensively, the Rams count on their front seven to make up for a shaky secondary. Colorado State plays a lot of soft zone coverage, relying on the defensive line to create a surge against the run and pressure on passing downs. One of the most impressive and unknown defensive players in the nation is DE Clark Haggans, who finished the year with 80 tackles. Haggans is a physical specimen who gets an excellent jump off the edge and creates penetration against the run. He is all over the field, forcing teams to double-team him on nearly every play from scrimmage. The Rams are also tough in the middle against the run, anchored by LB Ula Tuitele, who finished second in the conference to New Mexico's Brian Urlacher in tackles.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Despite another brutal non-conference schedule that included back-to-back road games at Nebraska and Texas A&M, the Eagles finished strong and will head back to the Liberty Bowl. QB Jeff Kelly was forced into the fire as the starter this season, and after a long learning process and too many mistakes early on, Kelly has become not only a caretaker in this offense, but a playmaker. After throwing seven interceptions in his first four games, he tossed only four more the rest of the season. Kelly wound up leading the conference in passing efficiency. His 7.93 yards per attempt topped the league and he completed 153 of 260 attempts for 2,062 yards with 21 touchdowns. The Eagles are also an improved running team with Derrick Nix leading the group with a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. Nix is a physical, 223-pound back who is not real flashy, but he wears defenses down in the second half and create tremendous balance for the offense. This is an offense that was slow out of the gate, but really came on and grew as a unit as the season progressed.
The Eagle defense kept the team in games all season long, leading Conference USA in total defense (294.1 yards allowed per game), rushing defense (91.5 yards per game) and scoring defense (15.6 yards per game). Adalius Thomas is undoubtedly the leader of the unit, recording nine sacks and dominating opposing tackles on just about every down. He also has an outstanding supporting cast, especially against the run. Ty Trahan, 54 tackles and three sacks, and T.J. Slaughter, 112 tackles, are excellent athletes at the linebacker position and make it very difficult for teams to stretch plays to the outside. Safety Leo Barnes, another big hitter who does an excellent job of roaming the entire field, recorded 88 tackles on the season.
Keys to the game
1. Colorado State's pass rush. Over the final five games, the Golden Eagles found themselves offensively, and now possess a formidable passing attack led by first-year quarterback Jeff Kelly. Colorado State is not equipped in its secondary to hold up against the Eagle passing game if there is not a heavy rush on Kelly. The Rams had not allowed a 200-yard passing game until they allowed UNLV quarterback Jason Thomas time in the pocket and he made them pay by throwing for 216 yards. The Rams are going to have to get to Kelly with a heavy blitz scheme if they expect to hold up versus the pass.
2. Jeff Kelly's caretaking ability as the Eagle quarterback. Kelly's play has been the difference for this team down the stretch. The Eagles were a dominating defensive team from the start of the year, but now that the offense is capable of putting points on the board, Southern Miss is a tough team to beat. It will be interesting to see the still-inexperienced quarterback handle the pressure of a bowl game. The Rams have the personnel to put a heavy rush on Kelly, and he is going to have to prove that he can beat the blitz and take care of the ball under pressure.
3. CSU's running attack led by Kevin McDougal. The Rams live and die on McDougal's ability to take over the game. With McDougal out of the lineup, the Rams struggled, losing three of four games. When he returned, the Rams went on a five-game winning streak in which McDougal averaged more than 120 yards per game rushing He has his work cut out for him against a defense which held opponents to 91.5-yards per contest. If the Rams cannot establish a running game against an Eagle defense that is likely to show a lot of eight-and-nine man fronts, Colorado State will be able to do very little offensively.
War Room Edge: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
This is an interesting matchup between two teams with strong defenses. The Rams are going to have to run the ball in order to stay in this game, but the task is not going to be an easy one against an Eagle defense that is expecting the run and will play a lot of eight-men in the box defensive sets. This should be a low-scoring contest, but Southern Miss is more capable of handling the challenge due to its newfound balance on offense. If first-year starter Jeff Kelly does not fold under the pressure, the Eagles should be able to score enough points to put this game out of reach and force the Rams to throw the ball to win, something they are incapable of doing against a strong defense.
 | Material from The War Room. Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com |
