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 Tuesday, September 7
It's now or never for Turner
 
By John Keim
Pro Football Weekly

 The Redskins changed owners, the general manager and quarterbacks. They changed their backfield, their linebackers and half of their secondary. They've even changed the name of the stadium. But they didn't change the head coach. Yet. That will happen if something else doesn't change: the results.

REDSKINS AT A GLANCE
Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson
Last year: 6-10, fourth place in NFC East
Key returnees:: CB Darrell Green (3 INT); DT Dan Wilkinson (7½ sacks); DT Dana Stubblefield (1½ sacks); WR Michael Westbrook (44 receptions, 736 yards and 6 TDs), RB Skip Hicks (433 yards, 8 TDs)
New faces: QB Brad Johnson (Vikings); DB Champ Bailey (first-round pick); S Sam Shade (Bengals); QB Rodney Peete (Eagles); OL Andy Heck (Bears)
New places: QB Trent Green (Rams); QB Gus Frerotte (Lions); WR Leslie Shepherd (Browns); CB Cris Dishman (Chiefs)
Watch out: The Redskins' change in offensive personnel at quarterback and running back could backfire, especially if Johnson's knee problems during training camp continue into the regular season.
Better than '98: If Stubblefield is healthy and dedicated, it helps the run defense, which ranked 28th among the league's 30 teams last season.
Worse than '98: After releasing veteran Terry Allen, the load of the running game might fall on second-year man Hicks or fourth-year back Stephen Davis.

In five years, Norv Turner hasn't guided the Redskins into the postseason. And he's entering his second rebuilding phase, an incredible luxury for a coach with a 32-47-1 record.

But new owner Daniel Snyder has already delivered an ultimatum: playoffs or else. A slow start could even cost Turner his job.

Snyder, a weekly presence during training camp, has spruced up Redskin Park, ordering a new paint job and making the lobby look like a bowl of sherbet. Something about improving everyone's energy level.

He has also warned the players that those who are overweight or out of shape will be jobless -- ignoring, perhaps, the salary-cap implications of a potential purge. And Snyder already has severed ties with the Cooke family, temporarily changing the name of the stadium from Jack Kent Cooke Stadium to Redskins Stadium.

For whatever reason, the attitude among the players has changed, led by defensive tackle Dana Stubblefield, who arrived at Redskin Park at 6 a.m. every day in the offseason. He also led a changed mindset regarding the preseason, one the Redskins hope carries into the regular season.

"(Last year) I treated it like I had always treated the preseason," Stubblefield said. "I was like, 'So what?' This year it's a lot different from the standpoint that we want to establish ourselves and see where we're at, going into the first game."

Other changes are just as important, starting at quarterback with Brad Johnson, who might be Washington's best quarterback since Mark Rypien in 1991. Johnson's accuracy will allow the Redskins to throw deep more than in the past, provided the line can protect him. And he's not afraid to dump the ball off, thereby eliminating the costly mistakes that have ruined the Redskins under Turner.

Fullback Larry Centers, a former Redskins killer, had a strong summer and could make Arizona pay for releasing him. Snyder pushed for his signing. Centers and defensive end Marco Coleman, another offseason signee, immediately became team leaders. Their enthusiasm was evident from the first day of training camp.

Strong safety Sam Shade arrived from Cincinnati and will pair with Leomont Evans, who moves from strong to free safety. The linebacking corps, though not exactly new, is different. Derek Smith moves from the weak side to the middle, replacing free-agent loss Marvcus Patton; Shawn Barber replaces Smith; and Greg Jones takes over for retired Ken Harvey. Then there are rookies Champ Bailey at cornerback and Jon Jansen at offensive right tackle. Both have a chance to be special.

In all, the Redskins might have as many as 16 new starters compared to last year's season opener.

"You know this group will keep getting better," Turner said. "This group will be a lot better in November and December. When you're new and things are going good, it's easy. But no one knows how each guy will handle adversity because they haven't been around each other as much as other teams have. That will be a test when it happens.

The Redskins are a bit of an enigma. When they added Dan Wilkinson and Dana Stubblefield last season, I thought they had really made a big improvement in their defense. But those two big defensive tackles both disappointed last season.

The big issue in Washington remains stopping the run. The 'Skins have struggled with that for years, and they need the defensive line, with Big Daddy and Stubblefield, to step up.

The other big question for the Redskins is consistency. Offensively, this team needs to find its identity. Are they a passing team, with Brad Johnson now at quarterback? Are they a running team, with Skip Hicks? I don't think they know yet.

Washington has some talent, and they might be able to compete a little with the Cardinals, Giants and Cowboys, but I don't think this team is ready to challenge for the playoffs yet. And that will probably signal the end of Norv Turner's tenure in Washington.

"But a lot of (the changes) are deceiving. A lot of the players have been in our organization for two or three years, so it's not as major a change as it sounds."

Another change: Turner isn't predicting anything for this team. Last year, when asked about his squad, he said it would be his best. Instead, the Redskins dropped their first seven games. This summer, when asked that question, Turner said, "I'm not falling into that trap again."

But he also understands reality. So, if this isn't his best team, he'll be falling somewhere else next season.

Here's a position-by-position look at Washington's roster:

Quarterbacks
Johnson is the Redskins' most experienced, accurate quarterback to date under Turner. No Redskins quarterback has completed more than 58.3 percent of his passes under Turner; Johnson's career mark is 62.1. And for a change, Turner doesn't have to break in a youngster.

Johnson has proved he can lead a team to the playoffs. But he must prove he can stay healthy. If not, Rodney Peete is a solid backup, and Casey Weldon has played well this summer. The staff is convinced Weldon could be another Trent Green if given the chance. Grade: B

Running backs
Stephen Davis and Skip Hicks must replace hard-nosed Terry Allen. Davis had the early nod in the preseason, mainly because he hits the holes harder and is a better pass protector. Hicks started for Allen last season but is inconsistent and looks to bounce things outside too much.

Neither Hicks nor Davis has ever rushed for 100 yards in an NFL game. Centers adds another pass-receiving threat, which running back Brian Mitchell already was providing. They'll line up together on numerous plays. FB Larry Bowie, the team's best blocker, reinjured his leg and will miss a couple of months. Grade: B-

Receivers
Michael Westbrook continues to mature, giving the Redskins reason to believe this is his breakout year. Injuries have derailed him in the past, including a herniated disc in his neck that required surgery after last season. But he's healthy and has looked sharp in practice. He has moved to the "Z" receiver slot as the Redskins try to ease the double-teams Westbrook faces.

Albert Connell is Washington's fastest player, but he needs to be mentally tougher to withstand the emotional highs and lows of the NFL. He's a playmaker who excels at gaining yards after the catch. Irving Fryar adds necessary depth, not to mention solid leadership. He'll start the season as the No. 3 wideout.

James Thrash and Chris Thomas work hard and help mostly on special teams, but they did not produce when called upon last year. TE Stephen Alexander presents a speedy target and will be difficult for linebackers to cover. TE James Jenkins is a capable blocker.Grade: C+

Offensive linemen
The right side of the line could be special with OG Tre Johnson and impressive rookie Jansen. Both are strong, physical run blockers. But Johnson must stay healthy, something he hasn't yet done. Jansen is better at pass protecting than the Redskins expected. C Cory Raymer was the only starting lineman to stay healthy last season. He has never lived up to his second-round draft status, however. OLG Keith Sims, a Pro Bowler from 1994 to '96 in Miami, is injury-free for the first time in three years and lost 22 pounds in the offseason. He gives the Redskins a solid pass blocker on the left side.

OLT Andy Heck is nearing the end of a solid career. His footwork is still good, but his body is banged up. Left tackle could be a season-long trouble spot. OLT-OG Joe Patton is a solid backup and could be more if he can emerge from Turner's doghouse. OGs Brad Badger and Rod Milstead have experience. ORT Jamie Brown plays too stiffly to be effective. Grade: C-

Defensive linemen
Four former first-round picks will start, anchored in the middle by DTs Dan Wilkinson and Stubblefield, who's coming off knee surgery. The latter reported in great shape, anxious to prove last season -- not 1997, when he had 15 sacks for the 49ers -- was a fluke. Wilkinson played the best among the linemen in the second half of last season.

DLE Kenard Lang has been pushed by Anthony Cook. But Lang, when he remembers to stay low, can be a playmaker, and he finished strong in '98. DRE Coleman shores up a major weakness the past five years, especially against the run. Reserve DT Marc Boutte and Cook will provide excellent depth, allowing the Redskins to rotate fresh linemen. Speedy DE Ndukwe Kalu will be a nickel pass rusher. The linemen will no longer have two-gap responsibilities, allowing them to be more aggressive as they crash through the line. Grade: B+

Linebackers
The potential is there, especially if the line does its job, enabling the linebackers to use their speed. Their main negative is experience. Smith moves from the weak side, where he started for two seasons, to the middle, where, despite weighing only 240 pounds, he's best-suited. Smith will cover tight ends as opposed to running backs, leaving that job to new weak-side LB Barber, who always seems to be around the ball. Barber has a knack for making big plays.

Strong-side LB Jones started five games last year, but he was bothered all season by a sore back. He has recovered but hasn't applied much pressure on the quarterback in the preseason. Fred Strickland provides a veteran presence in the middle, should anything happen to Smith. Twan Russell helps on special teams and in some nickel coverages. Grade: C+

Defensive backs
CBs Darrell Green and Bailey should allow the Redskins to mix their coverages. Green has not slowed much, and his reaction time compensates for any lost steps. Bailey proved in the preseason that he's a quick learner and can sting quarterbacks if they pick on him too much.

Shade is faster than anyone the Redskins have had at strong safety under Turner. Evans started 13 games last year and improved, especially against play-action passes. He and Shade can cover lots of ground. Nickel CB Darryl Pounds is capable of big plays and loves to blitz. There's little safety depth, though Matt Stevens isn't bad. Grade: B

Special teams
Punter Matt Turk has made three straight Pro Bowls and set a Redskins record in 1998 with 33 punts inside the 20-yard line. Kickers Brett Conway and Cary Blanchard have battled all camp, swapping weeks in the lead. Conway kicked better once the games started. Blanchard struggled last season, making only 11 of 17 field-goal attempts. Conway has a stronger leg.

Mitchell, who started slowly last season but finished strong as his blocking improved, is still capable of changing games with his returns. He has returned a kickoff for a touchdown in each of the past two seasons. Grade: B

Material from Pro Football Weekly.
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