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Wednesday, December 1
Updated: December 2, 6:42 PM ET
 
War Room: Colts (9-2) at Dolphins (8-3)

The War Room

Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.

Indianapolis offense vs. Miami defense
This game will have severe repercussions on the outcome of the AFC East and the AFC's playoff picture. An Indianapolis win would give the Colts a two-game lead on the Dolphins, and with just four games left -- a deficit that could be an insurmountable. An victory by Miami would put the Dolphins in a first-place tie with Indianapolis, as well as give them an advantage over the Colts in the case of a tiebreaker because of their sweep of the season series.

COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 18
Pass 2
Tot. Yds. 4
Scoring 3
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 10
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 9
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 6
# of Ints. 16
# of Sacks 28
Turnover differential +3

Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino can ill-afford another performance like Thursday's in Dallas. The horrific Thanksgiving effort by Marino is of obvious concern for the Dolphins offensive coaching staff, which considered benching their starter midway through Thursday's game. Instead, coach Jimmy Johnson opted to stick with Marino against the wishes of quarterback coach Lary Seiple, who was calling for Damon Huard. Johnson felt if given time, Marino could temper his throwing woes and establish a rhythm, but that never occurred.

The Colts secondary will employ the strategy used by Dallas -- a defense that forced Marino into five interceptions. Indianapolis defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio will constantly change coverages and throw a zone blitz package at Marino, not allowing him to familiarize himself with a particular look. The thinking is that Marino is still rusty from his extensive hiatus and that things are not clicking for him just yet.

Shawn King's suspension has forced the Colts to make changes up front defensively. The team has moved Bernard Whittington to the left defensive end spot to make up for the loss of King. Whittington started the year at defensive tackle, but of his 61 career starts, 43 have come at defensive end. He has great explosion off the ball and is a formidable substitution in King's absence.

The Colts have struggled this season against the run, giving up 106 yards per game, ranking 18th in the NFL. And although Miami is a ball-control outfit, the Dolphins rank 21st in rushing, gaining just 94 yards per contest. However, even with a below-average running game that has featured three different backs this season, the Dolphins have still been able to control the clock, ranking seventh in the NFL in time of possession.

This is a reflection of Huard's ability to play within the Miami offense. Rather than force the ball into coverage when under pressure, like Marino did against Dallas, Huard takes the sack or looks to run with the ball, keeping the clock moving. This is conducive to the style of offense the Dolphins run, and it also keeps the defense off the field.

Marino doesn't help the Dolphins' offensive blueprint when he forces things in the passing game; he hurts it. He eliminates any tempo the running game establishes by forcing incomplete passes and stopping the clock. Dolphins rookie J.J. Johnson is a big bruising runner, (6-foot-1, 235 pounds), who experiences success when he gets heavy rotation within the offense, carrying the ball 25 to 30 times a game. He is able to wear down the opposing defense. Marino's presence under center doesn't allow for this.

This week, Johnson will no longer be running behind fullback Rob Konrad, as the revolving door in Miami's backfield has rotated again. Stanley Pritchett will start for Konrad , who has been slowed by fatigue in the past three games, showing signs typical of rookies that have trouble adjusting to the NFL's rigorous 16-game schedule.

Miami offense vs. Indianapolis defense
Miami's defensive coaches have already displayed serious concern over this meeting with fundamentalist quarterback Peyton Manning. On Monday morning, Jimmy Johnson elected to bench overzealous cornerback Terrell Buckley in favor of second-year man Patrick Surtain. The thinking is that Surtain is too quick to bite on play-action.

DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 21
Pass 22
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 15
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 28
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 18
vs. Pass 15
Total yds. allowed 12
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 30
Turnover differential -3

In last week's game in Dallas, Buckley got beat for a 65-yard TD at the hands of a Troy Aikman play-fake. Buckley is still nursing a gimpy ankle, and Johnson is also aware that Manning executes his fakes better than most quarterbacks in the NFL. All of this has relegated Buckley strictly to nickel situations.

The Colts offense features the second-rated passing attack in the NFL, however, the Dolphins are yielding just 195 passing yards a game, fifth best in the league. Miami will need to win the battle up front in order to set the tempo and take Manning out of his passing rhythm.

The Dolphins must take advantage of the surging line play of defensive tackles Tim Bowens and Daryl Gardener. If Bowens and Gardner can penetrate the Indianapolis offensive front, it will force Colts running backEdgerrin James to use his vision and change of direction to try to get outside of talented defensive ends Trace Armstrong and Jason Taylor.

If the Dolphins contain James and keep him in check without having to blitz linebackers and defensive backs, this will take the thunder out of Manning's play-fakes and leave more defenders in coverage on first and second downs.

With E.G. Green returning to the lineup, Manning now has one more weapon at his disposal. Colts director of player personnel Bill Polian, has assembled the best group of offensive skill players in the league, but their incredible balance is a credit to the offensive line. This group has only allowed one sack per 30 passing attempts since the start of last season.

If Manning has time, the pressure will be on the Miami secondary. The tape on Manning reveals that he is lethal with ample time, so often this year, he has hooked up with a second or third receiver, which makes the return of Green even more of a threat.

Brock Marion is an exceptional run-stopper from his free safety position, but he'll have to stay pass-oriented this week, as well as keep the young Surtain abreast of what is going on within the secondary. Cornerback Sam Madison's matchup with Marvin Harrison will be the most enticing of the weekend. Madison flourishes in man-to-man coverage, this comes as a considerable advantage to the Dolphins, who won't have to commit multiple defenders to stopping Harrison.

Special teams
The Dolphins' Olindo Mare leads all NFL kickers in scoring this season with 103 points. Punter Tom Hutton's hang-time and length both could use improving.

NFL RANK
Category IND MIA
Punt return avg. 16 6
Kickoff return avg. 10 3
Opp. punt return avg. 31 26
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 22 21
Time of possession 12 7

Brock Marion is doing a fine job returning kicks and punts, but it might be slowing him down defensively. Terrence Wilkins is not only sure-handed returning kickoffs and punts, he's also a threat.

Colts punter Hunter Smith isn't booming punts, but he's getting the job done, averaging more than 42 yards an effort. Vanderjagt has only missed four field goals this year, and his kickoffs have been some of the league's best.

Key matchups

  • Colts WRs Harrison and Wilkins vs. Dolphins CBs Madison and Surtain
    The Dolphins love to play tight man-to-man coverage with their outstanding corners, but Harrison and Wilkins are legitimate deep threats, and with the threat of the run game and James, Manning is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at play-action fakes. One of the reasons that the Colts receivers consistently get behind opposing secondaries, is the tendency of the corners to bite on play-action fakes or be frozen by Manning's ball-handling. Madison and Surtain must not bite on the play-fakes, and they must be able to cover Harrison and Wilkins without help from the safeties.

  • Dolphins MLB Zach Thomas vs. Colts RB James
    Thomas is one of the most active middle linebackers in the NFL with outstanding range, but he has his hands full with James. He must step up and fill lanes against the run between the tackles, but he must also be aware of James as a receiver out of the backfield at all times. Although Thomas will not have a lot of pass-coverage responsibilities on James because of his range, he should be in position to make a lot of plays. James is a tremendous threat in the open field, and Thomas must have a huge day tracking his every move.

  • Colts DE Chad Bratzke vs. Dolphins LT Richmond Webb
    Bratzke has been a huge upgrade for this Colts defense, and he is one of the best backside edge rushers in the NFL. Webb might be starting to fade after an outstanding NFL career, and the Dolphins cannot afford for Marino to take a lot of backside hits. If Miami is forced to keep a back in to block, it will really hinder the versatility and play-calling of the offense.

    The Colts will win if ...

  • They score early and force Miami to play catch-up. The Colts usually score in bunches, and the last thing Miami wants to do is get into an offensive shootout, especially with Marino coming back slowly from an injury. If the Colts can force the Dolphins to abandon their running game and ball-control offense, they will be able to tee off on Marino with an all-out pass rush. An early lead will set the scenario in motion and also build confidence for a young Colts team.

  • They get the ball to James and the passing game. Although James is very explosive running the football, he is becoming a dangerous threat as a receiver out of the backfield. He will force the Dolphins to "spy" him all over the field, and if Miami has to cover him with a safety in addition to an outside linebacker, it will open up the Colts' passing game. When James is utilized as a receiver, it really spreads the opposing defense and limits its ability to attack the quarterback.

  • They maintain composure and play a very sound game. This is a very young Colts team that is experiencing success for the first time in 1999. This is a marquee game on the road against a very respected opponent, and there are a lot of playoff implications. The Colts must not get wrapped up in the drama and must execute their game plan and limit their mistakes, knowing that their personnel is as good or better than the Dolphins.

    The Dolphins will win if ...

  • They take care of the football. Miami lost at Dallas last week on poor quarterback play by Marino and turnovers. The Dolphins must not give the Indianapolis offense a short field to work with, and they must limit the Colts' offensive opportunities by controlling the clock and winning the battle for time of possession.

  • They run the football. Johnson is committed to the ground game, and not only will success here wear down the Colts defense, it will also keep Manning and the explosive Colts offense on the sidelines. Miami's best chance to win this game is to make it very physical and low-scoring, and a ball-control game will accomplish this.

  • They get to Manning with the pass rush. If Manning has time to throw the football, he will pick apart a very good Miami secondary. He has great vision, and his decision-making is almost astonishing. The only way that you can force Manning into mistakes, is a lot of pressure and a variety of coverages that forces him to get rid of the ball quicker than he would like. The Dolphins have an excellent pass rush, especially off the edge, but if they gamble too much with the blitz and the Colts pick it up, they will pay for it with big plays in the passing game. This is a game in which the Dolphins might have to get to Manning with only their front-four.

    The War Room edge
    Indianapolis is playing with a lot of confidence, and Miami is struggling to get back on track after two embarrassing physical losses at Buffalo and Dallas in the last three weeks. This is a big game for both teams, but the Colts have more explosiveness and offensive weapons and Marino does not look close to being 100 percent, in terms of his arm strength. This will be a better defensive game than many people realize, but the Colts should prevail with enough big plays to hold on for a huge road victory for this young franchise.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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