Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
Minnesota offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
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VIKINGS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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19
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Pass
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1
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Tot. Yds.
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2
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Scoring
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5
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Int's allowed
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15
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Sacks allowed
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28
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BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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3
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vs. Pass
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3
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Total yds. allowed
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2
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# of Ints.
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15
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# of Sacks
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31
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Turnover differential
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-7
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Regardless of their vast depth up front, it's impossible for Tampa Bay's defense to execute at its highest level without Warren Sapp in the lineup. That's exactly the dilemma that the Bucs encountered in the first meeting between these teams as the Pro Bowl defensive tackle was sidelined with a broken hand. Understandably, Tony Dungy's club struggled, recording zero sacks and just three tackles for loss, both season-lows.
The Buccaneers' entire defensive package is predicated on the front four's ability to get penetration without committing linebackers to the blitz. The most common alignment the Vikings will see this week is referred to as an "under" front, in which all the down linemen play a shade technique over either shoulder of their opponent.
Tampa will run a number of stunts and twists along the line in order to complicate Minnesota's blocking schemes. Once defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin senses that the Vikings are comfortable in their assignments, he likes to roll coverage to the weakside and blitz the cornerback on the single-receiver side of the formation. This will force Viking tackles Todd Steussie and Korey Stringer to slide and pickup the wide rush, which is a difficult to task for any player.
In addition, the Vikings can't ignore the use of strong safety John Lynch in a pass-rushing role. Tampa Bay frequently walks up Lynch near the line of scrimmage to help in run support, but the Vikings' coaching staff has recognized Lynch's tendency to almost exclusively blitz when he lines up on the weakside.
The biggest area of concern for Minnesota will be the overall athleticism on the other side of the ball. The key for the Vikings will be the play of their interior line, which has not fared too well in past contests against the Bucs. Center Jeff Christy, along with guards Randall McDaniel and David Dixon, must work in concert against the exceptional counter moves that each defender uses to create penetration. Look for the Bucs to continue using end Chidi Ahanotu inside to prevent the Vikings from double-teaming Sapp, who could be the difference-maker in this rematch.
If QB Jeff George is given time to make his progression reads, look for him to keep connecting with WR's Cris Carter and Randy Moss en route to his third-straight 300-yard game.
Tampa Bay offense vs. Minnesota defense
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BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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9
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Pass
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28
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Tot. Yds.
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27
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Scoring
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24
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Int's allowed
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12
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Sacks allowed
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32
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VIKINGS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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15
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vs. Pass
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31
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Total yds. allowed
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30
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# of Ints.
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7
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# of Sacks
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26
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Turnover differential
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-6
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The Bucs face a huge challenge this week lining up to play with rookie QB Shaun King. Head coach Tony Dungy fell in love with King when he coached him in last January's Senior Bowl but he didn't count on the rookie starting in his first year.
Aside from their Week 4 loss in which they rushed for just 84 yards on 24 carries, Tampa Bay has had great success running the ball on Minnesota in the past so look for FB Mike Alstott and RB Warrick Dunn to get plenty of work all afternoon. Dungy will stay committed to the run even if the Bucs aren't successful on the ground early. He can't afford to put the game into King's hands, especially before they've established something on the ground.
Offensive coordinator Mike Shula will won't scale back the playbook all that much this week because the team feels King has a better grasp of the system than most veterans. King looked sharp on a couple of short routes last week against Seattle and look for him to use his backs and tight ends more than Dilfer had in the past.
Unlike most inexperienced quarterbacks, the coaching staff believes that King will have the composure to take good care of the football. King will need more help from his receivers than they gave Dilfer the past three games. Reidel Anthony had three drops of his own, including a touchdown, last week against Seattle and the team is still struggling to find a compliment to Jacquez Green.
If someone can step up opposite Green, King could have a huge debut picking on an inept Vikings secondary that was scorched by San Diego's Jim Harbaugh for over 400 yards last week.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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MIN
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TB
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Punt return avg.
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17
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15
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Kickoff return avg.
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18
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15
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Opp. punt return avg.
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20
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9
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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15
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2
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Time of possession
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17
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1
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This is an area where the Bucs appear to have a distinctive advantage. Rookie PK Martin Grammatica is a proven pressure performer and his counterpart, Minnesota's Gary Anderson, continues to struggle. Vikings P Mitch Berger is coming off his worst outing of the season, averaging just 38.6 on five kicks against the Chargers but Tampa's Mark Royals isn't faring much better himself. Robert Tate provided little spark on returns, averaging just over 20 yards on five kickoff returns and fair-catching his only punt. Tate will have a tough time getting untracked against some superior Bucs cover teams. Despite his problems at receiver, KOR Reidel Anthony continues to make a difference on special teams, as he did last week with a 39 return. Yo Murphy and Jacquez Green handled the kickoff duties in the previous meeting and the Bucs are banking on Anthony making more of an impact this time around.
Key matchups
Minnesota DT John Randle vs. Tampa Bay QB Shaun King
King will be forced into the starting role after Dilfer suffered a broken collarbone last Sunday. King doesn't have any overwhelming physical characteristics but the Bucs feel they can win with him because he's a natural leader. Minnesota's Randle will do everything he can to get inside the rookie's head.
Tampa Bay DC Donnie Abraham vs. Minnesota WR Cris Carter
Abraham has made big plays in consecutive games to help lift the Bucs to victory and he'll need a similar effort on Monday night against Carter, who has a streak of four-straight 100-yard games for the first time in his career.
Minnesota OL vs. Tampa Bay DL
Minnesota's skill people, led by QB Jeff George, will get the job done if they guys up front do their part. Tampa increased their blitz package last week against Seattle and it resulted in five Jon Kitna interceptions. They won't have that luxury this week because they need as many people in coverage as possible. Tampa's front four will need to get the job done on its own so that the LB's can drop into coverage.
Minnesota will win if...
The offensive line gives QB George time in the pocket. The biggest area of concern for Minnesota will be the overall athleticism on the other side of the ball. The key for the Vikings will be the play of their interior line, which has not fared too well in past contests against the Bucs. Center Jeff Christy, along with guards Randall McDaniel and David Dixon, must work in concert against the exceptional counter moves that each defender uses to create penetration.
The defense eliminates too many yards after contact and catch. Poor tackling has been a reoccurring theme all season for the Vikings and they must do a better job on Sunday against FB Alstott and WR Green. With QB King making his first start, the Bucs will focus on the short and intermediate passing games, making it difficult to break big plays unless the Vikings get sloppy.
They take care of the football and don't give the Bucs a short field to work with. Tampa's inept offense struggled with Dilfer so it's hard to imagine it will have any success with a rookie under center. Minnesota must win the field position advantage and force the Bucs to drive the length of the field.
Tampa Bay will win if...
They can control the ball on the ground with RBs Alstott and Dunn. When the Buccaneers are successful against the Vikings, the one common theme is always their ability to win the time of possession battle. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin's unit is one of the best in the league but they can't afford to be on the field all day against the Vikings explosive offense.
The defense continues to come up with impact plays. Sacks and turnovers. That's what this unit will be striving for early against the Vikings in front of their home crowd on Monday Night Football. Tampa recorded five interceptions last week against Seattle and they forced a season-high in turnovers in last year's home Monday night game against the Packers.
The rest of the offense steps up and plays well around QB King. Too many dropped passes have stalled drives this season for Tampa and the receiver corps must play their best game without Dilfer in the lineup. TE Dave Moore made a couple of nice plays over the middle last week and he needs to have a big game underneath for this offense.
The War Room edge
The loss of QB Dilfer is a bigger blow to this team than most people realize. He had been playing under control since being re-inserted into the starting lineup and rarely turned the ball over. The Vikings' offense can't be stopped and their defense can't stop anybody, even the lowly Chargers. The Vikings will find yards and points tougher to come by against the Bucs' stingy defense but getting a win in his first start is too much to ask of a rookie quarterback, especially in front of a national television audience. Vikings win their sixth straight.
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