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Tuesday, Apr. 6 10:31am ET
Players to watch
By Greg Robertson
ESPN Golf Online
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1. David Duval |
| Last five Masters: 1994-DNP; 1995-DNP; 1996-T18; 1997-Cut; 1998-T2 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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He's the best player in the world and has won 30 percent of his starts since late 1997 including his last two. He leads the tour in wins, putting, greens in regulation and scoring. Duval finished second at Augusta last year, will be the crowd favorite and has more confidence than anybody. His Players Championship win proves he can beat anyone, anywhere. |
He may have a Tour Championship, Players Championship and Mercedes Championship to his credit, but he's never won a major. And until he does, there will be doubt. Duval isn't the most creative player around the greens, which can be costly on these slick surfaces, and his lengthy drives can stray at times. |
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2. Davis Love III |
| Last five Masters: 1994-Cut; 1995-2; 1996-T7; 1997-T7; 1998-T33 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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In his first eight starts this year, Love has seven top-10 finishes, playing 23 of 29 rounds at par or better. In the past four years at Augusta, he has three top-10 finishes and should have won in 1995. He's second in scoring average, third in birdies and ninth in greens in regulation. And he's long off the tee. |
Love may lead the tour in top-10 finishes this year, but he hasn't been a finisher. His 68 at the BellSouth last week was his first round under 70 on a Sunday this year, and has been tentative under pressure. His putter has let him down, and he tends to let one bad hole wipe him out -- like the 7 he took on the par-3 17th at Sawgrass on Saturday. |
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3. Fred Couples |
| Last five Masters: 1994-DNP; 1995-T10; 1996-T15; 1997-T7; 1998-T2 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Couples has come to Augusta 14 times and never missed a cut. He has eight top-10 finishes, including a win in 1992. Couples controlled last year's event for 3½ rounds, only losing when Mark O'Meara made spectacular birdie putts on the 71st and 72nd holes. His distance makes eagle possible on all the par 5s. |
Rust. Couples skipped all of the Florida swing, with the exception of The Players Championship, then missed the cut at the BellSouth. He re-injured his back, a constant source of problems for him over the years. And although he is long, he ranks just 129th in driving accuracy. |
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4. Steve Elkington |
| Last five Masters: 1994-Cut; 1995-T5; 1996-Cut; 1997-T12; 1998-30 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Health has always been the key issue holding Elkington back, but that isn't a problem in 1999. His win at Doral showed his "A" game is available. He ranks second in greens in regulation and fourth in driving accuracy, two vital stats when it comes to majors. |
Elkington has yet to put on a dominating run over several weeks, so you're never quite sure when he will be hot. Of all the majors, The Masters is where distance is important, and Elkington ranks just 145th off the tee. His Players Championship performance showed he may not be ready for the fast greens of Augusta. |
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5. Tiger Woods |
| Last five Masters: 1994-DNP; 1995-T41; 1996-Cut; 1997-1; 1998-T8 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Nobody has been more consistent this season than Woods, who has six top-10 finishes in eight starts this year. And nobody has dominated Augusta in recent years like Woods did in 1997. And now that the pressure of being No. 1 in the world is off, he can get back to doing what he does best: dominate a golf course. |
The Tiger mystique is gone. In the 18 months since David Duval has won 10 times, Woods has won just twice. Although he contends, his emotions don't allow him to get over the top. In his last two events, Woods hasn't gotten into the 60s in any round, and he doesn't appear comfortable yet with his new caddie. |
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6. Ernie Els |
| Last five Masters: 1994-T8; 1995-Cut; 1996-T12; 1997-T17; 1998-T16 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Even David Duval looks like an emotional basket case next to Els, the calmest player in the world. The pressure of a major doesn't get to Els, who already owns two U.S. Open titles. He enters Augusta with wins on both the PGA and European tours this year and showed at Riviera that he can win when challenged by a first-class leaderboard. |
Els' smooth swing and rhythm won't help in the most crucial area at Augusta: on the greens. While he has some decent finishes in this event, Els has never been in the thick of a hunt. In the last three events on the Florida swing, Els had just three rounds out of 12 under par, a sequence which included an 80 on Saturday at Sawgrass. |
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7. Mark O'Meara |
| Last five Masters: 1994-T15; 1995-T31; 1996-T18; 1997-T30; 1998-1 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Never bet against the defending champion, especially one with as much experience and wins as O'Meara. He showed last year that he can putt the Augusta greens as well as anyone, and he showed at The Players Championship with his sixth-place finish that his game is getting close to being ready. |
In the last 30 years, Nick Faldo is the only man to repeat at Augusta. The course is simply too difficult for someone to get all the breaks two years in a row. If his putter isn't absolutely perfect, he doesn't have the length to compete with Duval, Woods, Couples and Love. Not only is his length a problem, but he ranks just 92nd in driving accuracy this year. |
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8. Justin Leonard |
| Last five Masters: 1994-DNP; 1995-DNP; 1996-T27; 1997-T7; 1998-T8 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Like Love, Leonard has been a model of consistency. His tie for 23rd at The Players Championship was the first time in eight events this year he has been out of the top 20. He ranks fourth in scoring average, eighth in putting and eighth in sand saves. He makes the putts when he has to and saves the pars when he's in trouble. He's been in the top 10 here for two years in a row |
Just like Love, Leonard hasn't shown an ability to close the deal. He hasn't won in a year despite ample opportunities. Recent history has shown the need for length at Augusta, and Leonard doesn't have that. He ranks just 104th in driving distance. You can only finesse so many pars and birdies out of Augusta over 72 holes. |
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9. Jim Furyk |
| Last five Masters: 1994-DNP; 1995-DNP; 1996-T29; 1997-T29; 1998-4 |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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Nobody has been better in the majors in recent years without winning than Furyk. Over his last seven majors, he has five top-10 finishes, including fourth at Augusta last year. Furyk is an accurate driver and can put the ball in the right spot to set up birdie chances. His win at Las Vegas late last year has also driven away the stigma of an inability to close. |
Furyk may have played well in majors recently, but he hasn't won any. And he hasn't won much else, either. One win at Las Vegas doesn't make up for 23 top-10 finishes without a victory over a two-year span. And while he may be accurate, his driving distance is even shorter than Leonard, ranking a pitiful 149th on the tour in that area. |
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10. Vijay Singh |
| Last five Masters: 1994-T27; 1995-Cut; 1996-T39; 1997-T17; 1998-Cut |
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WHY HE WILL WIN |
WHY HE WON'T WIN |
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The Masters will be the first major Singh plays as a major champion, having won the PGA Championship to close out 1998. A change in putting style last summer has dramatically improved his results. Already a winner once this year, Singh ranks second in total driving and sixth in greens in regulation. |
Singh is one of the best players on the tour, but he has never played well at Augusta. The man who never seems to miss a cut has done so 40 percent of the time at The Masters, including last year. The shaved grounds at Augusta don't help a player who can create so much from bad lies. |
11. Lee Westwood: Europe's best hope, Westwood tied for sixth at Sawgrass.
12. Nick Price: A third at The Players Championship is all the confidence he needs.
13. Scott Hoch: The best iron player in the business needs to make a few putts early to get going.
14. John Huston: In nine tries, he's made nine cuts at Augusta, and he's never been more confident.
15: Hal Sutton: His game returned last year, but he hasn't made the cut at Augusta since 1985.
16: Phil Mickelson: An 82 on Sunday at Sawgrass? His first major looks to be down the road.
17: Tom Lehman: If the shoulder is healed, nobody is a tougher competitor -- especially in majors.
18: Fred Funk: You couldn't walk up and place drives any better than he can hit them.
19: Bill Glasson: A major would highlight an injury-plagued career. He beat Duval in the Match Play.
20: Greg Norman It just wouldn't be right if Norman never won at Augusta. But his game looks rusty.
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